Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,325$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(703 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,396.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,396.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $114$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(31.7 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(107.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $934$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $73,858$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,424.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 105.2)}}\) (asimptote \(102,424.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,482$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(984 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,289.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,289.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $68,376$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,950$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,484.5}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 32.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,484.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $251$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(91.9 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{239.9}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 30.1)}}\) (asimptote \(239.9\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $561$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,265$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,148.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 49.4)}}\) (asimptote \(7,148.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $329$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(98.2 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{324.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(324.4\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $136$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,101$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,520.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(12,520.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $609$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(204 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{591.1}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(591.1\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $290$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,880$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(808 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,813.5}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,813.5\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(5.22 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.1}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $62,123$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,503.5}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(59,503.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,776$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.89 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,535.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,535.9\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,209$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $288,511$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(5.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{279,400.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 53.9)}}\) (asimptote \(279,400.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $44,602$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(9.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,410.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.6)}}\) (asimptote \(42,410.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $242,531$ on 2020-07-08
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $242,149$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(7.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,823.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(234,823.6\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,914$ on 2020-07-08
Best fit exponential: \(9.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,958.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(33,958.7\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,595$ on 2020-07-08
